Projects & Publications

Projects and Publications

Projects

For a complete list of USGS-funded SW CASC projects, click here.

For projects conducted through the SW CASC host agreement, click here.

Publications

Mechanisms of forest resilience

D. A. Falk, Marshall, L. A., Young, D. J. N., Tepley, A. J., Guitermane, C. H., Gregg, R. M., Keeley, J. E., and van Mantgem, P. J., “Mechanisms of forest resilience”, Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 512, 2022.

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Mechanisms of woody-plant mortality under rising drought, CO2 and vapour pressure deficit

W. M. Hammond, Trowbridge, A. M., Torres-Ruiz, J. M., Grossiord, C., De Kauwe, M. G., Tissue, D. T., Sala, A., Oliveira, R. S., Nardini, A., Mencuccini, M., Trugman, A. T., Wiley, E., Xu, C., Hartmann, H., Hoch, G., Kahmen, A., Klein, T., D. Mackay, S., Mantova, M., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Medlyn, B. E., Sapes, G., Pivovaroff, A., Adams, H. D., Allen, C. D., Anderegg, W. R. L., Arend, M., Brodribb, T., Breshears, D. D., McDowell, N. G., Choat, B., De Cáceres, M., and Cochard, H., “Mechanisms of woody-plant mortality under rising drought, CO2 and vapour pressure deficit”, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.

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Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. et al. Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California. Clim Dyn 2022

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The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

G. M. MacDonald, Dong, C., A. Williams, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Lin, K., Okin, G. S., Gillespie, T. W., Long, D., Lin, Y. - H., and Hall, A., “The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate”, Communications Earth & Environment, 2022.

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Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses

C. H. Guiterman, Gregg, R. M., Marshall, L. A. E., Beckmann, J. J., van Mantgem, P. J., Falk, D. A., Keeley, J. E., Caprio, A. C., Coop, J. D., Fornwalt, P. J., Haffey, C., R. Hagmann, K., Jackson, S. T., Lynch, A. M., Margolis, E. Q., Marks, C., Meyer, M. D., Safford, H., Syphard, A. Dunya, Taylor, A., Wilcox, C., Carril, D., Enquist, C. A. F., Huffman, D., Iniguez, J., Molinari, N. A., Restaino, C., and Stevens, J. T., “Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses”, Fire Ecol, vol. 18, 2022.

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Alternative Management Paradigms for the Future of the Colorado and Green Rivers

K. Wheeler, Schmidt, J. C., Salehabadi, H., Neilson, B., Mihalevich, B., Kasprak, A., Goeking, S., Gilbert, L., Wang, J., Udall, B., Bruckerhoff, L., and Kuhn, E., “Alternative Management Paradigms for the Future of the Colorado and Green Rivers”, Center for Colorado River Studies, 2021.

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Bias in estimated breeding-bird abundance from closure-assumption violations

E. Fleishman and Fogarty, F. A., “Bias in estimated breeding-bird abundance from closure-assumption violations”, Ecological Indicators, vol. 131, 2021.

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Detection of drought-induced blue oak mortality in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California

M. Huesca, Thorne, J. H., Boynton, R., and Shapiro, K. D., “Detection of drought-induced blue oak mortality in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California”, Ecosphere, vol. 12, 2021.

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DOMINANT SONORAN DESERT PLANT SPECIES HAVE DIVERGENT PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

V. A. Landau, Munson, S. M., Zachmann, L. J., Wiens, J. F., Franklin, K., and Crausbay, S. D., “DOMINANT SONORAN DESERT PLANT SPECIES HAVE DIVERGENT PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE”, Madroño, vol. 68, 2021.

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Expanded Ethical Principles for Research Partnership and Transdisciplinary Natural Resource Management Science

A. M. Meadow, Peck, D. E., Owen, G., Wilmer, H., Brymer, A. Bentley, Carroll, S. Russo, Ferguson, D. B., Garba, I., and Greene, C., “Expanded Ethical Principles for Research Partnership and Transdisciplinary Natural Resource Management Science”, Environmental Management, 2021.

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Forest Resistance to Extended Drought Enhanced by Prescribed Fire in Low Elevation Forests of the Sierra Nevada

P. J. van Mantgem, Das, A. J., Stephenson, N. L., and Caprio, A. C., “Forest Resistance to Extended Drought Enhanced by Prescribed Fire in Low Elevation Forests of the Sierra Nevada”, Forests, vol. 12, 2021.

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High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical records of three marshes in San Francisco Bay, California

E. Fard, MacDonald, G. M., Smol, J. P., Lydon, S., and Brown, L. N., “High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical records of three marshes in San Francisco Bay, California”, Quaternary International, 2021.

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Keepers of the Flame: Supporting the Revitalization of Indigenous Cultural Burning

C. Adlam, Middleton, B. Rose, Almendariz, D., Goode, R. W., and Martinez, D. J., “Keepers of the Flame: Supporting the Revitalization of Indigenous Cultural Burning”, Society & Natural Resources, 2021.

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Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea-Level Rise in the Contiguous United States

J. R. Holmquist, MacDonald, G. M., and Brown, L. N., “Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea-Level Rise in the Contiguous United States”, Earth's Future, vol. 9, no. 6, 2021.

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Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

P. L. Barnard, Iacobellis, S. F., Dugan, J. E., Page, H. M., Wood, N. J., Hart, J. A. Finzi, Cayan, D. R., Erikson, L. H., Hubbard, D. M., Myers, M. R., and Melack, J. M., “Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems”, Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.

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Opening learning spaces to create actionable knowledge for conservation

M. J. Stern, Meadow, A. M., and Briske, D. D., “Opening learning spaces to create actionable knowledge for conservation”, Conservation Science and Practice, 2021.

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Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale

T. M. Brown, Balantic, C., Morelli, T. Lyn, Adams, A., Gross, S., Mazur, R., Sawyer, S., Tucker, J., Vernon, M., Mengelt, C., Morales, J., Thorne, J. H., and Athearn, N., “Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale”, Conservation Science and Practice, vol. 3, no. 9, 2021.

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Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible Scenarios for the Future

C. A.Woodhouse, Smith, R. M., McAfee, S. A., Pederson, G. T., McCabe, G. J., W. Miller, P., and Csank, A., “Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible Scenarios for the Future”, Climate Services, vol. 21, 2021.

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Associations of Breeding-bird Abundance with Climate vary among Species and Trait-based Groups in Southern California

F. A. Fogarty, Fleishman, E., DeHaan, L. L., and Cayan, D. R., “Associations of Breeding-bird Abundance with Climate vary among Species and Trait-based Groups in Southern California”, PLOS One, 2020.

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Atmospheric Rivers

M. F. Ralph, Dettinger, M., Rutz, J. J., and Waliser, D. E., Atmospheric Rivers. Springer, 2020.

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Becoming Storms: Indigenous Water Protectors Fight for the Future

B. Rose Middl Manning, Martinez, D., Reed, K., and Mascarhenas, M., “Becoming Storms: Indigenous Water Protectors Fight for the Future”, in Lessons in Environmental Justice From Civil Rights to Black Lives Matter and Idle No More, 2020.

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Effects of Elevated Sea Levels and Waves on Southern California Estuaries During the 2015–2016 El Niño

M. E. Harvey, Schroeter, S. C., Elwany, H., Page, H. M., Ambrose, R., Johnston, K., Thorne, K., Pawlak, G., Meltzer, H., Tiefenthaler, L., Largier, J. L., Gallien, T., Stein, E. D., Crooks, J. A., Whitcraft, C., and Giddings, S. N., “Effects of Elevated Sea Levels and Waves on Southern California Estuaries During the 2015–2016 El Niño”, Estuaries and Coasts, 2020.

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Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration

M. C. Wright, Thorne, J. H., Welch, K. R., Stewart, J. A. E., van Mantgem, P. J., Young, D. J. N., Shive, K. L., Preisler, H. K., Das, A. J., Stephenson, N. L., Keeley, J. E., and Safford, H. D., “Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration”, Ecological Applications, 2020.

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Forest Management Under Megadrought: Urgent Needs at Finer Scale and Higher Intensity

J. P. Field, Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Bradford, J. B., Law, D. J., and Feng, X., “Forest Management Under Megadrought: Urgent Needs at Finer Scale and Higher Intensity”, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2020.

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Mapping of Land Cover with Open‐source Software and Ultra‐high‐resolution Imagery Acquired with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

N. Horning, Zillig, M. Wohlfeil, Fogarty, F. A., Ersts, P. J., and Fleishman, E., “Mapping of Land Cover with Open‐source Software and Ultra‐high‐resolution Imagery Acquired with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”, Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, 2020.

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Typologizing Stakeholder Information Use to Better Understand the Impacts of Collaborative Climate Science

K. VanderMolen, Wall, T. U., Horangic, A., and Meadow, A. M., “Typologizing Stakeholder Information Use to Better Understand the Impacts of Collaborative Climate Science”, Environmental Management, 2020.

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Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

R. Aguilera, Benmarhnia, T., and Gershunov, A., “Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation”, Science of the Total Environment, vol. 671, 2019.

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A Call for the Evaluation of Web-based Climate Data and Analysis Tools

K. VanderMolen, Wall, T., and Daudert, B., “A Call for the Evaluation of Web-based Climate Data and Analysis Tools”, American Meteorological Society, vol. 100, 2019.

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Climate Change Suppresses Santa Ana Winds of Southern California and Sharpens Their Seasonality

J. Guzman‐Morales and Gershunov, A., “Climate Change Suppresses Santa Ana Winds of Southern California and Sharpens Their Seasonality”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 46, no. 5, 2019.

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Fire, livestock grazing, topography, and precipitation affect occurrence and prevalence of Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in the central Great Basin, USA

F. A. Fogarty, M. Zillig., W., Williamson, M. A., Fleishman, E., Nally, R. C. Mac, Chambers, J. C., Bradley, B. A., Dobkin, D. S., Board, D. I., Leu, M., and Horning, N., “Fire, livestock grazing, topography, and precipitation affect occurrence and prevalence of Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in the central Great Basin, USA”, Biological Invasions, 2019.

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Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present

E. Zorita, Trouet, V., Taylor, A. H., and Wahl, E. R., “Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present”, Proceedings for the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116, 2019.

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Multiple Stressors Influence Salt Marsh Recovery after a Spring Fire at Mugu Lagoon, CA

J. A. Rosencranz, MacDonald, G. M., Brown, L. N., Ambrose, R. F., and Willis, K. S., “Multiple Stressors Influence Salt Marsh Recovery after a Spring Fire at Mugu Lagoon, CA”, WETLANDS, 2019.

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Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California

D. A. Bishop, Lettenmaier, D. P., A. Williams, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman‐Morales, J., and Balch, J. K., “Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California”, Earth's Future, vol. 7, no. 8, 2019.

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Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers

A. Gershunov, F. Ralph, M., Kalansky, J., Polade, S. D., Cayan, D. R., Lavers, D. A., Dettinger, M. D., Pierce, D. W., Guirguis, K., Clemesha, R. E. S., and Shulgina, T., “Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers”, Scientific Reports, vol. 9, 2019.

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Returning the Yurok Forest to the Yurok Tribe: California’s First Tribal Carbon Credit Project,

B. Rose Middleton and Reed, K., “Returning the Yurok Forest to the Yurok Tribe: California’s First Tribal Carbon Credit Project,”, in Stan. Envtl. L. Rev., vol. 39, 2019.

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Shifts of Demography and Growth in Limber Pine Forests of the Great Basin, USA, across 4000 years of Climate Variability

C. I. Millar, King, J. C., Delany, D. L., Westfall, R. D., and Charlet, D. A., “Shifts of Demography and Growth in Limber Pine Forests of the Great Basin, USA, across 4000 years of Climate Variability”, Quaternary Research, vol. 91, 2019.

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Toward Effective Actionable Science: Stakeholder Needs Assessment Final Report

G. Garfin and Haverland, A., “Toward Effective Actionable Science: Stakeholder Needs Assessment Final Report”, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 2019.

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Vegetation Responses to 2012–2016 Drought in Northern and Southern California

C. Dong, MacDonald, G. M., A. Williams, P., Okin, G. S., Gillespie, T. W., and Willis, K., “Vegetation Responses to 2012–2016 Drought in Northern and Southern California”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 46, 2019.

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The Art of Co-production of Knowledge in Environmental Sciences and Management: Lessons from International Practice

I. N. S. Djenontin and Meadow, A. M., “The Art of Co-production of Knowledge in Environmental Sciences and Management: Lessons from International Practice”, Environmental Management, vol. 61, 2018.

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Do Low-elevation Ravines Provide Climate Refugia for Subalpine Limber Pine (Pinus flexilis) in the Great Basin, USA?

C. I. Millar, Flint, A. L., Westfall, R. D., Charlet, D. A., King, J. C., Flint, L. E., and Delany, D. L., “Do Low-elevation Ravines Provide Climate Refugia for Subalpine Limber Pine (Pinus flexilis) in the Great Basin, USA?”, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 58, 2018.

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Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

I. Singh, Walter, J., Demaria, E., and Dominguez, F., “Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes”, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 123, 2018.

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Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow over Past Centuries

C. A. Woodhouse and Pederson, G. T., “Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow over Past Centuries”, Water Resources Research, vol. 54, 2018.

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Sea-level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

J. A. Rosencranz, Thorne, K. M., Buffington, K. J., Takekawa, J. Y., Hechinger, R. F., Stewart, T. E., Ambrose, R. F., MacDonald, G. M., Holmgren, M. A., Crooks, J. A., Patton, R. T., and Lafferty, K. D., “Sea-level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes”, Ecology and evolution. [Oxford] :, 2018.

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Application of Synthetic Scenarios to Address Water Resource Concerns: A Management-guided Case Study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

S. A. McAfee, McCabe, G. J., Woodhouse, C. A., and Pederson, G. T., “Application of Synthetic Scenarios to Address Water Resource Concerns: A Management-guided Case Study from the Upper Colorado River Basin”, Climate Services, vol. 8, 2017.

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Assessing the Climate-scale Variability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting Western North America

A. Gershunov, Ralph, F. M., Lavers, D. A., Rutz, J. J., and Shulgina, T., “Assessing the Climate-scale Variability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting Western North America”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 44, 2017.

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Forests in the Southwest USA

A. Holguin, Kerr, A. C., Schwartz, M. W., Thorne, J. H., Chambers, J. C., Stine, P. A., and Choe, H., “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Forests in the Southwest USA”, Climate Change, vol. 148, 2017.

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Data on Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Vegetation Productivity and Fire Patterns in the Southwestern

C. M. Albano, Soulard, C. E., and Dettinger, M. D., “Data on Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Vegetation Productivity and Fire Patterns in the Southwestern ”, U.S. Geological Survey Data Release, 2017.

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Developing Evaluation Indicators to Improve the Process of Coproducing Usable Climate Science

T. U. Wall, Meadow, A. M., and Horganic, A., “Developing Evaluation Indicators to Improve the Process of Coproducing Usable Climate Science”, Weather, Climate, and Society, vol. 9, 2017.

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Evidence that Recent Warming is Reducing Upper Colorado River Flows

G. McCabe, McAfee, S., Woodhouse, C., Pederson, G., and Wolock, D., “Evidence that Recent Warming is Reducing Upper Colorado River Flows”, Earth Interactions, vol. 21, 2017.

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Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Vegetation Productivity and Fire Patterns in the Southwestern US. Journal of Geophysical Research

C. M. Albano, Soulard, C. E., and Dettinger, M. D., “Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Vegetation Productivity and Fire Patterns in the Southwestern US. Journal of Geophysical Research”, Biogeosciences, vol. 122, 2017.

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Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde basins of Arizona, United States.

E. Demaria, Hu, H., von Glinski, G., Robles, M. , Skindlov, J., Walter, J., and Dominguez, F., “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde basins of Arizona, United States.”, Water Resources Research, vol. 53, 2017.

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Precipitation in a Warming World: Assessing Projected Hydro-climate Changes in California and other Mediterranean Climate regions

S. D. Polade, Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D. R., and Gershunov, A., “Precipitation in a Warming World: Assessing Projected Hydro-climate Changes in California and other Mediterranean Climate regions”, Scientific Reports, vol. 7, 2017.

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Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

C. M. Albano, Dettinger, M. D., McCarthy, M. I., Schaller, K. D., Welborn, T. L., and Cox, D. A., “Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA”, Natural Hazards, vol. 80, pp. 879-900, 2016.

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Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

H. Ganjurjav, Gao, Q., Schwartz, M. W., Zhu, W., Liang, Y., Li, Y., Wan, Y., Cao, X., Williamson, M. A., and Jiangcun, W., “Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow”, Scientific reports, vol. 6, 2016.

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Continuous 1985–2012 Landsat Monitoring to Assess Fire Effects on Meadows in Yosemite National Park, California

C. E. Soulard, Walker, J. J., Villarreal, M. L., and Albano, C. M., “Continuous 1985–2012 Landsat Monitoring to Assess Fire Effects on Meadows in Yosemite National Park, California”, Remote Sensing, vol. 8, 2016.

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Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

P. J. van Mantgem, Caprio, A. C., Stephenson, N. L., and Das, A. J., “Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?”, Fire Ecology, vol. 12, pp. 13-25, 2016.

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Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

K. M. Thorne, MacDonald, G. M., Ambrose, R. F., Buffington, K. J., Freeman, C. M., Janousek, C. N., Brown, L. N., Holmquist, J. R., Guntenspergen, G. R., and Powelson, K. W., “Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California”, 2016.

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Heat Wave Probability in the Changing Climate of the Southwest US

K. Guirguis, Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., and Gershunov, A., “Heat Wave Probability in the Changing Climate of the Southwest US”, Climate Dynamics, vol. 50, 2016.

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Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

J. R. Hatten, J Giermakowski, T., Holmes, J. A., Nowak, E. M., Johnson, M. J., Ironside, K. E., Peters, M., Truettner, C., and Cole, K. L., “Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States”, 2016.

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Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

C. A. Woodhouse, Pederson, G. T., Morino, K., McAfee, S. A., and McCabe, G. J., “Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 43, pp. 2174-2181, 2016.

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Lessons from First-Generation Climate Science Integrators

J. Brugger, Meadow, A., and Horangic, A., “Lessons from First-Generation Climate Science Integrators”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 97, pp. 355-365, 2016.

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Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack

S. Belmecheri, Babst, F., Wahl, E. R., Stahle, D. W., and Trouet, V., “Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack”, Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 2-3, 2016.

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The Northward March of Summer Low Cloudiness Along the California Coast

R. E. S. Clemesha, Cayan, D. R., Williams, A. P., Iacobellis, S. F., and Gershunov, A., “The Northward March of Summer Low Cloudiness Along the California Coast”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 43, 2016.

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Potential effects of sea-level rise on plant productivity: species-specific responses in northeast Pacific tidal marshes

C. N. Janousek, Buffington, K. J., Thorne, K. M., Guntenspergen, G. R., Takekawa, J. Y., and Dugger, B. D., “Potential effects of sea-level rise on plant productivity: species-specific responses in northeast Pacific tidal marshes”, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol. 548, pp. 111-125, 2016.

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A Rapid Forest Assessment Method for Multiparty Monitoring Across Landscapes

C. R. Davis, R Belote, T., Williamson, M. A., Larson, A. J., and Esch, B. E., “A Rapid Forest Assessment Method for Multiparty Monitoring Across Landscapes”, Journal of Forestry, vol. 114, pp. 125-133, 2016.

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Regulation of Precipitation-Associated Vegetation Dynamics on Catchment Water Balance in a Semiarid and Arid Mountainous Watershed

G. Tang, Sun, L., Lutz, A., and Carroll, R. W. H., “Regulation of Precipitation-Associated Vegetation Dynamics on Catchment Water Balance in a Semiarid and Arid Mountainous Watershed”, Ecohydrology, 2016.

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Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology, Extremes, and Behavior Spanning six and a half Decades

J. Guzman-Morales, Cayan, D., Li, H., Theiss, J., and Gershunov, A., “Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology, Extremes, and Behavior Spanning six and a half Decades”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 43, 2016.

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Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

A. H. Taylor, Trouet, V., Skinner, C. N., and Stephens, S., “Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, p. 201609775, 2016.

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Statistical correction of lidar-derived digital elevation models with multispectral airborne imagery in tidal marshes

K. J. Buffington, Dugger, B. D., Thorne, K. M., and Takekawa, J. Y., “Statistical correction of lidar-derived digital elevation models with multispectral airborne imagery in tidal marshes”, Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 186, pp. 616–625, 2016.

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Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

E. A. Chornesky, Ackerly, D. D., Beier, P., Davis, F. W., Flint, L. E., Lawler, J. J., Moyle, P. B., Moritz, M. A., Scoonover, M., and Byrd, K., “Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate”, BioScience, vol. 65, pp. 247-262, 2015.

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Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

P. R. Armsworth, Larson, E. R., Jackson, S. T., Sax, D. F., Simonin, P., Blossey, B., Green, N., Klein, M. L., Lester, L., Ricketts, T. H., Runge, M. C., and Shaw, M. R., “Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?”, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2015.

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Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

J. A. Rosencranz, Ganju, N. K., Ambrose, R. F., Brosnahan, S. M., Dickhudt, P. J., Guntenspergen, G. R., MacDonald, G. M., Takekawa, J. Y., and Thorne, K. M., “Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes”, Estuaries and Coasts, pp. 1-15, 2015.

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Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity

M. G. Anderson, Comer, P. J., Beier, P., Lawler, J. J., Schloss, C. A., Buttrick, S., Albano, C. M., and Faith, D. P., “Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity”, Conservation Biology, vol. 29, pp. 680-691, 2015.

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Challenges facing the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Complex, chaotic, or simply cantankerous?

S. N. Luoma, Dahm, C. N., Healey, M., and Moore, J. N., “Challenges facing the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Complex, chaotic, or simply cantankerous?”, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, vol. 13, 2015.

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Climate Change: Evaluating Your Local and Regional Water Resources

L. E. Flint, Flint, A. L., and Thorne, J. H., “Climate Change: Evaluating Your Local and Regional Water Resources”, 2015.

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Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5

D. A. Lavers, F Ralph, M., Waliser, D. E., Gershunov, A., and Dettinger, M. D., “Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, pp. 5617-5625, 2015.

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Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States

N. Pederson, D’Amato, A. W., Dyer, J. M., Foster, D. R., Goldblum, D., Hart, J. L., Hessl, A. E., Iverson, L. R., Jackson, S. T., and Martin-Benito, D., “Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States”, Global Change Biology, vol. 21, pp. 2105-2110, 2015.

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Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

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Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

J. Z. Drexler, Knifong, D., Tuil, J. L., Flint, L. E., and Flint, A. L., “Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change”, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 481, pp. 22-34, 2013.

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Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: The California Basin Characterization Model development and performance

L. E. Flint, Flint, A. L., Thorne, J. H., and Boynton, R., “Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: The California Basin Characterization Model development and performance”, Ecological Processes, vol. 2, pp. 1-21, 2013.

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Future Climate: Projected Average

D. R. Cayan, Tyree, M., Kunkel, K. E., Castro, C., Gershunov, A., Barsugli, J., Ray, A. J., Overpeck, J. T., Anderson, M., Russell, J., Rajagopalan, B., Rangwala, I., and Duffy, P., “Future Climate: Projected Average”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Future Climate: Projected Extremes

A. Gershunov, Rajagopalan, B., Overpeck, J. T., Guirguis, K., Hughes, M., Dettinger, M. D., Castro, C., Schwartz, R. E., Anderson, M., Ray, A. J., Barsugli, J., Cavazos, T., and Alexander, M., “Future Climate: Projected Extremes”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Human Health

H. E. Brown, Comrie, A. C., Drechsler, D. M., Barker, C. M., Basu, R., Brown, T., Gershunov, A., A. Kilpatrick, M., Reisen, W. K., and Ruddell, D. M., “Human Health”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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The human influence: Moral responsibility for novel ecosystems

A. Thompson and Jackson, S. T., “The human influence: Moral responsibility for novel ecosystems”, in Designer Biology: The Ethics of Intensively Engineering Biological and Ecological Systems., Lexington Books, 2013, pp. 125–150.

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The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California

K. Guirguis, Gershunov, A., Basu, R., and Tardy, A., “The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California”, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013.

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Increases in Flood Magnitudes in California Under Warming Climates

T. Das, Maurer, E. P., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., and Cayan, D. R., “Increases in Flood Magnitudes in California Under Warming Climates”, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 501, 2013.

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The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California

D. W. Pierce, Cayan, D. R., Das, T., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Bao, Y., Kanamitsu, M., Yoshimura, K., Snyder, M. A., and Sloan, L. C., “The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California”, Journal of Climate, vol. 26, pp. 5879-5896, 2013.

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The landfall and inland penetration of a flood-producing atmospheric river in Arizona. Part I: Observed synoptic-scale, orographic, and hydrometeorological characteristics

P. J. Neiman, F Ralph, M., Moore, B. J., Hughes, M., Mahoney, K. M., Cordeira, J. M., and Dettinger, M. D., “The landfall and inland penetration of a flood-producing atmospheric river in Arizona. Part I: Observed synoptic-scale, orographic, and hydrometeorological characteristics”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 14, pp. 460-484, 2013.

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The Missing Piece: Drought Impacts Monitoring

K. Lackstrom, Brennan, A., Ferguson, D., Crimmins, M., Darby, L., Dow, K., Ingram, K., Meadow, A., Reges, H., Shafer, M., and Smith, K., “The Missing Piece: Drought Impacts Monitoring”. 2013.

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Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: How fine scale do climate projections need to be?

J. Franklin, Davis, F. W., Ikegami, M., Syphard, A. D., Flint, L. E., Flint, A. L., and Hannah, L., “Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: How fine scale do climate projections need to be?”, Global Change Biology, vol. 19, pp. 473-483, 2013.

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Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States

T. C. Peterson, Jr, R. R. Heim, Hirsch, R., Kaiser, D. P., Brooks, H., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Dole, R. M., Giovannettone, J. P., Guirguis, K., Karl, T. R., Katz, R. W., Kunkel, K. E., Lettenmaier, D., McCabe, G. J., Paciorek, C. J., Ryberg, K. R., Schubert, S., Silva, V. B. S., Stewart, B. C., Vecchia, A. V., Villarini, G., Vose, R. S., Walsh, J., Wehner, M., Wolock, D., Wolter, K., Woodhouse, C. A., and Wuebbles, D., “Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. June, 2013.

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Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

S. D. Polade, Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., and Pierce, D. W., “Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, 2013.

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Natural Ecosystems

E. Fleishman, Belnap, J., Cobb, N., Enquist, C. A. F., Ford, K., MacDonald, G., Pellant, M., Schoennagel, T., Schmit, L. M., Schwartz, M. W., van Drunick, S., Westerling, A. T., Keyser, A., and Lucas, R., “Natural Ecosystems”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Natural, potential and actual vegetation in North America

S. T. Jackson, “Natural, potential and actual vegetation in North America”, Journal of Vegetation Science, vol. 24, 2013.

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Perspective: Ecological novelty is not new

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Potential effects of warming climate on visitor use in three Alaskan national parks

C. M. Albano, Angelo, C. L., Strauch, R. L., and Thurman, L. L., “Potential effects of warming climate on visitor use in three Alaskan national parks”, Park Science, vol. 30, 2013.

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Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

A. Torregrosa, Taylor, M. D., Flint, L. E., and Flint, A. L., “Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region”, PLoS ONE, vol. 8, p. e58450, 2013.

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Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions

W. J. Steenburgh, Redmond, K. T., Kunkel, K. E., Doesken, N., Gillies, R. R., Horel, J. D., Hoerling, M. P., and Painter, T. H., “Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions

M. P. Hoerling, Dettinger, M. D., Wolter, K., Lukas, J., Eischeid, J., Nemani, R., Leibmann, B., and Kunkel, K. E., “Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

D. W. Pierce, Das, T., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Bao, Y., Kanamitsu, M., Yoshimura, K., Snyder, M. A., Sloan, L. C., Franco, G., and Tyree, M., “Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling”, Climate Dynamics, vol. 40, 2013.

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Projections and downscaling for 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern US, with focus on Lake Tahoe

M. D. Dettinger, “Projections and downscaling for 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern US, with focus on Lake Tahoe”, Climatic Change, vol. 116, 2013.

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Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

J. L. Blois, Williams, J. W., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Jackson, S. T., and Ferrier, S., “Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 110, 2013.

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Summary for Decision Makers

J. Overpeck, Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Busch, D. E., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., Fleishman, E., Gershunov, A., MacDonald, G., Redmond, K. T., Travis, W. R., and Udall, B., “Summary for Decision Makers”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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A twenty-first-century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

A. B. White, Anderson, M. L., Dettinger, M. D., Ralph, F. M., Hinojosa, A., Cayan, D. R., Hartman, R. K., Reynolds, D. W., Johnson, L. E., and Schneider, T. L., “A twenty-first-century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events”, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, vol. 30, pp. 1585-1603, 2013.

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The Uneven Response of Different Snow Meaures to Human-Induced Climate Warming

D. W. Pierce and Cayan, D. R., “The Uneven Response of Different Snow Meaures to Human-Induced Climate Warming”, Journal of Climate, vol. 26, 2013.

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Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation

B. Udall, “Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation”, in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 2013.

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Western U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4

M. J. DeFlorio, Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., and Miller, A. J., “Western U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4”, Journal of Climate, vol. 26, 2013.

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California heat waves in the present and future

A. Gershunov and Guirguis, K., “California heat waves in the present and future”, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, 2012.

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Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA

J. L. Weiss, Betancourt, J. L., and Overpeck, J. T., “Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA”, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 117, 2012.

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